The results of our Leeds United fans’ confidence polls for October 2012 show confidence levels in Ken Bates and promotion are on the up, while confidence in Neil Warnock remains extremely high.

Neil Warnock

We start with the manager whose confidence rating has dropped slightly from 4.53 in September, to 4.43 in October. A barely noticeable change in all honesty, leaving Warnock’s confidence rating as extremely high on our chart.

It’s been a relatively good month for the Leeds United manager. Since our last poll Warnock has guided Leeds to 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the Championship, while also overseeing The Whites’ 2-1 League Cup victory over Premier League Everton.

99% of fans gave Warnock a 3 (Confident), 4 (Highly Confident) or a 5 (Total Confidence).

Confidence in Neil Warnock?

  • 5 - Total confidence (56%, 929 Votes)
  • 4 - Highly confident (33%, 545 Votes)
  • 3 - Confident (10%, 158 Votes)
  • 2 - Low confidence (1%, 18 Votes)
  • 1 - Extremely low confidence (0%, 2 Votes)
  • 0 - No confidence (0%, 5 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,653

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Ken Bates

The most dramatic increase of the month is Ken Bates’ confidence rating, rising from 0.44 in September to 1.04 in October. While confidence in Ken Bates remains ‘extremely low’, the rise is quite significant.

Various explanations were given for the rise, mostly related to the pending takeover. Some fans explained that they felt communication had been better during the last month, while others said they felt more confident he was doing the right thing and now believed he would sell the club. Another school of thought is that September’s votes came with a disappointing transfer window fresh in everyone’s mind, while others suggest that doubts raised over GFH may have had an effect.

The biggest contributing factor to the change was the amount of people saying they had no confidence whatsoever. 75% of fans picked this option in September, dropping to only 45% in October. However, the majority of those that changed their vote did so only slightly, giving Ken Bates a 1 (Extremely Low Confidence) or a 2 (Low Confidence) rather than a 0 (No Confidence). In total, 88% chose one of these three options compared to 95% in September.

Confidence in Ken Bates?

  • 5 - Total confidence (2%, 34 Votes)
  • 4 - Highly confident (2%, 27 Votes)
  • 3 - Confident (8%, 134 Votes)
  • 2 - Low confidence (22%, 350 Votes)
  • 1 - Extremely low confidence (20%, 319 Votes)
  • 0 - No confidence (47%, 762 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,625

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Finally, with results on the pitch elevating our league position, confidence in Warnock holding pretty steady and confidence in Ken Bates on the rise, it’s no surprise fans are more confident in Leeds United achieving promotion this season.

Compared to a rating of 2.41 in September, Leeds United fans confidence in promotion has risen to 2.72. The results continue to show mixed feelings, but less than 2% said they had no confidence whatsoever, compared with 8% last month.

Once again, opinions centred on the pending takeover. Most fans believe Leeds United need to strengthen the squad if they’re to sustain a promotion challenge and that funds won’t be forthcoming unless the takeover is completed. Most fans were quick to add that they thoroughly believed Neil Warnock was the man to take us back to the Premier League, but he’d have an extremely difficult time doing so without financial support.

Confidence in Leeds United achieving promotion?

  • 5 - Total confidence (2%, 39 Votes)
  • 4 - Highly confident (9%, 151 Votes)
  • 3 - Confident (50%, 794 Votes)
  • 2 - Low confidence (35%, 565 Votes)
  • 1 - Extremely low confidence (2%, 30 Votes)
  • 0 - No confidence (1%, 15 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,592

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About the polls

The polls are conducted over a 48 hour period and aim to deliver a sample size of at least 1,000. The highest possible ‘confidence level’ is 5, determined by averaging out the number associated with each level of confidence (ie. 0 – No Confidence, 5 – Total Confidence).

We have no way to estimate the population size of the Leeds United fanbase, so instead, follow the practices of widely respected polling firms such as Rasmussen who use a sample size of 1,000 to represent the population of the United States. In reality, our own sample size will often be higher than 1,000 and the population of the Leeds United fanbase is much lower than the United States of America, thus, we believe, providing a very accurate poll of Leeds United fan confidence.

You can find more information on sample size here.

The polls themselves use IP logging to prevent people voting more than once and effecting the outcome. This is by no means flawless, but the inconvenience it causes to those wishing to tamper with the polls should be enough of a deterrent. Moreover, the volume of votes we receive would make it very difficult for someone to artificially change the result. The polls are also monitored for any unusual changes in voting patterns.

The Scratching Shed takes great care to avoid influencing how people vote. While we accept the views of the site authors can often be in favour of, or against, certain individuals, the authors opinions are not published alongside the polls. The majority of our traffic comes via Google News and NewsNow, we are not a newspaper people read expecting a certain opinion, but an independent Leeds United site most people find randomly while looking for news on the club. As such, we believe our sample is an entirely random representation of the Leeds United fanbase.

14 Responses

  1. Steven

    Excellent work TSS. I wonder if it would be a good idea to have a poll if Leeds United supporters trust LUST after the recent joint statement by GFH and LUFC?

    • TSS

      Perhaps, but LUST are a supporters collective, I’m not sure it’s our place to question other fans? .

      • Pentaphrax

        It’s important to comment on the running of a group of people who claim to speak for all fans surely.

      • TSS

        They don’t claim to speak for all fans, they’ve quite specifically state on countless occasions that they speak for their members.

      • Pentaphrax

        I’m not sure their statements support your comment, they refer to their actions often as on behalf of the LUFC fans.

      • TSS

        I think you’ll struggle to find any evidence of that.

        Nevertheless, LUST are Leeds fans like the rest of us. Divide and conquer ensured we all remain at each others throats for the last seven years, giving the man who’s caused most of it a free pass.

  2. Paul

    It’s disturbing to read that confidence in Bates is on the increase, if not surprising.

    Football fans are such a bunch of fickle fuckers.

  3. racingsnake

    Wonder if you restarted this poll, what effect on confidence in KB after today’s statement from club/GFH?

  4. bluesman

    I wouldnt be too quick to rubbish LUST, they have 8000 members and have at least highlighted supporters concerns in dignified way and put pressure on SMURF. Who knows what the truth of the matter is. There are confidentiallity clauses, backed up by strict rules, in place! Lets stop fighting each other. Gary Cooper has done a good job for Leeds supporters and there were dark days when we were waiting for our next star to be sold off, together with anything else of value. In Warnock we trust!

    • mrbigwheels

      An accurate viewpoint bluesman. They’ve asked questions and pressured when no one else has. We must not forget the dark days. Even a Piranha will get caught eventually. No one is bigger than this Club and time will heal. We’re upward and onward to brighter days soon………

  5. Richard C

    This is not a representative poll of anyone other than those that bothered to take part. To disguise it by quoting ‘representative sample size’ is flawed in the extreme. Read some of the articles on ukpollingreport to help you understand this

    • TSS

      You could say that about any poll, it shows you totally fail to understand the concept of sample size. I studied a social science, I fully understand the principles of sample sizing, confidence intervals and everything else necessary to ensure you that the poll above is accurate.

      UKPollingReport’s latest post discusses a YouGov poll – they use exactly the same technique, and much smaller sample sizes in most cases. Aren’t their findings “only representative of those that bothered to take part”? No, they’re not. They’ve polled a percentage of a population (as have we, only we’ve polled a much larger percentage than they have).

      I’d say your argument is fundamentally flawed, but you haven’t even made one. You’ve simply cited a random website who itself cites random polls, which themselves, use sample sizes.


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