The Scratching Shed

Barnard snubs Leeds for Saints

Leeds United did go in for Lee Barnard, but were beaten to his signature by Southampton.  Apparently, the reason he chose Southampton over Elland Road is because he didn’t want to move north, which would make sense. Clearly, this was never about climbing the ladder for Lee, or he’d have definitely chose Leeds. No disrespect at all meant to Southampton, who I fully expect to make the play-offs, but promotion is still a dot on the horizon for them. The play-offs are a bit of a lottery that everyone wants to avoid (especially us).

£10m bids for Beckford?

This mornings papers are claiming that Leeds may now receive offers in the region of £10,000,000 for Jermaine Beckford! I was willing to help him pack and drive him where ever when people were quoting £3m, but for £10m I’ll carry him to the next club on my shoulders. Whilst I don’t doubt the FA Cup games have turned a few heads, football will have gone to a whole new level of crazy if we get £10m for Jermaine.

Maximum impact

Max Gradel should become our first permanent signing of the January transfer window today as he undertakes the necessary medical at Elland Road. The Ivorian youngster impressed Leeds United fans immediately after arriving on loan three months ago and there’s been calls for Grayson to ‘sign him up’ ever since.

Max has clearly enjoyed his time at Leeds United and spurred on by the overwhelming love he’s received from the clubs supporters, he almost immediately handed in a transfer request on his return to Leicester.

Return of Rose?

According to The People, Leeds are preparing to make a move for former academy starlet Danny Rose, who currently plays for FA Cup opponents, Tottenham Hotspur.

Rose met his former club in Saturday’s clash and gave a pretty impressive performance throughout. However, the appearence was a rare treat for the youngster who has spent most of his time so far out on loan. It’s believed Bolton (who are coincidentally our opponents in round 5, should we beat Tottenham) are also hoping to get Danny in on loan. Rose is believed to prefer a move to another Premier League club so the chances of him returning to Leeds are slim.

Snoddy here to stay

They say always end on a high and today, that particular high is provided by Robert Snodgrass who hit all the right notes after our draw with Tottenham telling The Times that he didn’t want to leave Leeds United;

“If they don’t want to sell me, I don’t want to leave, there’s no point. This team will be there at some point in the next two years.

“Everything is set up to go right back to the top.

“There’s no point being here if you think it stops when we get to the Championship.”

Reading between the lines, that statement could be taken as a bit of a dig at Jermaine Beckford, but in another interview Snoddy defended our “lazy” wantaway striker;

“Becks is just a clinical finisher and he’s rapid. Sometimes people say he doesn’t work too hard but you have to pick and choose.

“What do you want? Do you want the goals or do you want a striker who works hard? I think I prefer the goals, to be fair.”

Goals vs work rate? Where have I heard that argument before…

Three way battle for Barnard

Sky seem to have got something right yesterday which is Leeds United’s interest in signing Lee Barnard from Southend United. However, they seemed to be under the impression it was almost a done deal. Contrary to these claims, the Southend chairman has admitted three clubs are interested, but none of them have had an offer accepted as yet.

Southampton appear to be one of the other teams interested, but shouldn’t pose too much of a threat. Barnard has a much better chance of playing Championship football next year by joining Leeds than he would with the Saints.

Leicester standing firm on Gradel

Leeds United are believed to have upped their offer for Max Gradel as the first was refused by Leciester City. The 22-year old has returned to Leicester after his three month loan spell at Elland Road but is believed to be one of Grayson’s top priorities during the current transfer window.

Heal(y) be back?

David Healy has told how he has a “huge affection” for Leeds United and would love to return to Elland Road in the current transfer window. The Irish striker, who is currently signed to Sunderland is struggling for first team action up north and has admitted he’d be willing to drop down the pyramid in an attempt to rejuvenate his career.

A fans favourite during his time at Elland Road, but the differences between his scoring record for Leeds and Northern Ireland often left us frustrated. I remember once suggesting we should play in green if it’d mean Healy could deliver the goods. A lot of the problem was the style of play under the regime at that time, but maybe Simon Grayson could fit him in better? I’d certainly welcome him back if so.

As suspected, the supposed end to the Beckford saga was a false dawn as Simon Grayson has suggested Beckford has already signed a pre-contract with Everton where he’ll leave for at the end of the season.

Whilst the Beckford news is hardly a shock, Sky Sports are reporting something a little more interesting alongside it. They’re claiming that Leeds United have agreed a deal with Southend United to bring in Lee Barnard for one of those “undisclosed fees” our Kenneth is so keen on.

The second part is great news if true. Barnard is a more than capable striker who should add a new dimension to the Leeds front line. Anyone who saw Becchio miss a header from six-yards at the end of yesterdays game and Mike Grella prove largely uneffecient throughout would have been left under no illusions that Leeds need to strengthen the front line. Kudos to Simon for realising that.

Lee Barnard is 25 years old and has had a bit of an uneventful career before joining Southend in 2008. Since then, the forward has made 73 league appearences for the club, scoring 35 goals in the process. Coincidentally, Barnard started his career at this weekends opponents Tottenham. He spent six years under contract at White Hart Lane moving around on loan to various clubs, but never made it in Spurs’ first team.

As for Beckford, although I aren’t even slightly surprised I am disappointed. The team is clearly unsettled at the minute which has brought with it some dismal performances and a poor run of form and I can’t see how this will help matters. I have no doubts this is why he pulled himself off the transfer list and would bet money he’s getting a nice signing on fee for his troubles. It’s simply a waiting game for him now and I can’t help but question how much desire he’ll have to play for the Whites in the meantime. This is probably why Grayson is looking to bring Barnard in now.

First of all, let’s get one thing straight; I’m not anti-Beckford. Infact, regular readers of TSS will know I’ve been one of his biggest advocates. His record speaks for itself and the contribution the lad has made to Leeds over the last three years shouldn’t be undermined even if he does leave.

The fact of the matter is though; Beckford is just one of eleven. As a team we’ve performed well this season, as a team we lead the division and as a team, I think we’ll get promoted with or without Beckford, assuming Simon Grayson is given the necessary funds while the transfer window is open.

At League One level, Jermaine Beckford is an exceptional striker and I do believe he could do a job at a higher level. In the Championship he’d definitely provide goals. Whether or not he could do the same in the Premier League is questionable, but let’s not get into another debate about where his natural level is because quite frankly, no one is ever going to agree and it’s becoming tedious.

The thing is though, Beckford is not irreplaceable. There are plenty of strikers out there capable of scoring one in two. As the League One scorers charts currently show, even in this division there’s one striker with more goals to his name than Beckford (Lambert), one with the same amount (Holt) and another just one goal behind him in a much weaker team (Barnard). That’s three strikers that match/exceed him on stats in just one division, so Beckford is hardly a one off. 

What’s made this such a major issue is that the fans of Leeds United expect blind loyalty from anyone wearing the shirt. That all white strip means a lot to us and we expect it to mean the same to those wearing it. Unfortunately, that’s very rarely going to be the case. A football player, like a builder, a landlord or a lawyer is just a job and much like the builders, landlords and lawyers, the players will move when offered a better opportunity elsewhere. It’s that simple, and each and every one of us would do the same.

Take away the fans emotions from football and you’re left with a business like any other. If football is the oil business, then Leeds United would be Esso. Jermaine Beckford meanwhile would be one of the sandwiches you find in their petrol stations. Much like the sandwich, Beckford’s value depends on a date and his best before is the end of this transfer window. After that, should we keep him I have no doubts he’ll bag another 15 goals this season, but Leeds United would lose £1.5-2,000,000 and our most important striker.

But promotion is worth more than any £2,000,000 I hear you cry? I can’t argue with that, it’s a good point, but he still should be sold while he has a value and can make the business that is Leeds United football club money.

The main reason I stress he should be sold is because if he is, we arguably have £2,000,000 to play with. There are things to deduct from that figure such as the Wealdstone cut, but that’s beside the point. Whether Beckford leaves now or in the summer, he has to be replaced. If we can sell Beckford now and get a replacement in for £x,000,000 then you can deduct whatever we made from Beckford from that sum and the overall cost is not as much. Leave it ‘til the summer when he’s worth nothing to Leeds United and that £x,000,000 still has to be forked out, but none of it’s recouped from anything. We lose Beckford, we lose the money he was worth and we still have to replace him.

It all comes down to whether you want Leeds United to be run like a business, or dictated by fans emotions. The latter is how Peter Ridsdale ran it, whilst the former seems to have done us well so far. I know which I prefer.

All the attention today will be on Elland Road to see whether or not Jermaine Beckford makes an appearence, but with his transfer clearly inevitable, I thought we should look deeper at the stats of his possible successors.

After one user criticised my earlier post claiming that the Beckford to Newcastle deal was done, I feel I should first clarify my position on this. I still believe the deal is done, but it’s simply a case of crossing the i’s and dotting the t’s. Jermaine Beckford clearly made that statement saying he was going to Newcastle, or else the club would have dismissed it by now. It’d be stupid of them not to as any other potential suitors would go elsewhere if they believed (as it appears) the deal is already as good as done. I guess today will reveal a lot, but a company like Goal.com aren’t going to make quotes they can’t back up or court-case happy, Ken Bates led Leeds United would be sending the lawyers round.

Anyway, back to the point at hand. I’ve compiled a table of stats for the four strikers the bookies are favouring to replace Beckford. The appearences and goals are league games only and for the club they are currently signed to.

It’s worth noting that Billy Sharp’s record away from Sheffield is a lot better. His average goals per game ratio at Scunthorpe United for example was 0.64, which is better than that of Beckford’s at Leeds. Similarly, whilst he’s been on loan at Doncaster Rovers he’s managed a record of 0.625 goals per game. It just seems that at Sheffield United, he’s never really been able to perform as he can.

Looking at the stats with that in mind, it’s quite obvious why these are the players the bookies are favouring. Leeds United need to replace Beckford with someone capable of one in two. They’re more likely to invest in someone of a relatively young age, which is why 21-year-old Hooper was 2/1 favourite the last time I checked. Leeds United will also need a player capable of peforming in the Championship, and since Hooper is already at that level with struggling Scunthorpe, he ticks all the right boxes. You don’t have to be a professional scout to be able to see the list of criteria required by Leeds, but the one thing no one has really considered is cash.

We’re all assuming Beckford will go for somewhere in the region of £2m. I aren’t convinced Scunthorpe would part with their star-player for such a price, especially since his departure would almost certainly seal their fate as one of the relegated teams from this years Championship. Whilst Hooper is my preferred choice of replacement, the big questions are whether we can get him for the same (or less) than we get for Beckford, and will Bates be willing to add further funds if not?

A quote from Hooper yesterday, in response to the speculation has been interpreted differently by many fans, but for me, it signals his willingness to join Leeds;

“I want to stay at Scunny, but it will be in the back of everyone’s head that I will be going there.

“But I am staying at Scunny and playing at Derby tomorrow hopefully.

“I would be keen (to stay) but if a big club comes in, you never know.”

Given we’re the only team I’m aware of being linked with Hooper, the big club must be us. Maybe it’s years of supporting Leeds that’s made me cynical, but when a player refuses to catergorically rule out a move away from a club, it tends to mean he’s leaving, which is exactly what he’s done here. The door is wide open and this is a screaming invitation for Simon Grayson to collect.

Billy Sharp meanwhile is a definite option. Out of favour at Sheffield United, so undoubtedly available on the cheap. He’s also young and as I pointed out above, he has got a 0.6+ ratio away from Sheffield. He’d tick all the right boxes not only in terms of playing criteria, but also in terms of cost, which would undoubtedly make him Bates’ favourite and give him an edge over the others.

Billy Sharp and Gary Hooper then clearly leading the way, but Aaron McLean and Lee Barnard are good outside shots. That said, this is Simon Grayson whose transfer dealings have never been done publically. Very little was heard about Max Gradel before he signed on the dotted line, so an unexpected striker like the earlier linked Steve Davies from Derby shouldn’t be ruled out. Should make for an interesting few weeks anyway!

Jermaine Beckford’s transfer out of Leeds now seems somewhat inevitable. For me, it’s simply a matter of time and a question of how much as Ken Bates digs his nails in and tries to ignite a bidding war.

So who do we get to replace him? TSS looks at our options.

Lee Barnard

Southend United, 25 years old.

As consistent as they come at League One level, Barnard has found the back of the net 35 times in his 73 appearances for Southend leaving him just short of the one in two mark.

Although there’s been no rumours linking Barnard to Leeds, he is a proven goal scorer and his contract expires in the summer, so it’s likely we could get him on the cheap (Ken Bates’ favourite word). Likelihood factor: 4 out of 10

Grant Holt

Norwich City, 28 years old.

A bit long in the tooth in comparison to other possible candidates, but Holt certainly has an eye for goal with 14 in the League and 20 in all competitions so far this season. No stranger to the transfer market after with Norwich being his eleventh professional club, Holt has seemingly never settled anywhere.

Only joined Norwich at the beginning of the season and is integral to their promotion push. Selling him would show a massive lack of ambition for a team chasing at our heels so this one for me, is extremely unlikely. Likelihood factor: 1 out of 10.

"You're the one that I want..." Gary Hooper

Gary Hooper

Scunthorpe United, 21 years old

At just 21 years old, Hooper has to be seen as a good signing given that he’s managed 31 goals in 62 games for Scunthorpe and could well develop and take the next step with Leeds United. Contracted until 2011, but with Scunthorpe a likely replacement for Leeds in League One next year, he may be interested in a move.

With his age and record to date, Hooper is my personal favourite, but any a sale would not go down well in Scunthorpe and do little to help their relegation battle. Likelihood factor: 5 out of 10

Billy Sharp

Sheffield United,  23 years old.

Out of favour at Sheffield United and currently on loan to Doncaster Rovers, where he’s found his form hitting 10 goals in 16 league appearances. Billy is from Yorkshire and proved himself to be a natural goal scoring talent at Scunthorpe where he knocked in 53 in 82 games, breaking club records in the process.

Sheffield United will undoubtedly be willing to sell, and I think Billy would be happy to stay local to his home town. At just 23 years of age he’s definitely in the right age group and should be able to take the next step up with Leeds United. Likelihood factor: 9 out of 10 (Heavy favourite)

What about Lambert?

I’m sure Rickie Lambert will be a talking point but we have absolutely no chance of getting him as far as I’m concerned. Southampton don’t need the money and are likely to make the play-offs, so there’s no reason for them to sell.

Anyway, I’ve opened a poll below for you to cast your vote.

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