The results of our Leeds United fans’ confidence polls for October 2012 show confidence levels in Ken Bates and promotion are on the up, while confidence in Neil Warnock remains extremely high.
We start with the manager whose confidence rating has dropped slightly from 4.53 in September, to 4.43 in October. A barely noticeable change in all honesty, leaving Warnock’s confidence rating as extremely high on our chart.
It’s been a relatively good month for the Leeds United manager. Since our last poll Warnock has guided Leeds to 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the Championship, while also overseeing The Whites’ 2-1 League Cup victory over Premier League Everton.
99% of fans gave Warnock a 3 (Confident), 4 (Highly Confident) or a 5 (Total Confidence).
Confidence in Neil Warnock?
- 5 - Total confidence (56%, 929 Votes)
- 4 - Highly confident (33%, 545 Votes)
- 3 - Confident (10%, 158 Votes)
- 2 - Low confidence (1%, 18 Votes)
- 1 - Extremely low confidence (0%, 2 Votes)
- 0 - No confidence (0%, 5 Votes)
Total Voters: 1,653
The most dramatic increase of the month is Ken Bates’ confidence rating, rising from 0.44 in September to 1.04 in October. While confidence in Ken Bates remains ‘extremely low’, the rise is quite significant.
Various explanations were given for the rise, mostly related to the pending takeover. Some fans explained that they felt communication had been better during the last month, while others said they felt more confident he was doing the right thing and now believed he would sell the club. Another school of thought is that September’s votes came with a disappointing transfer window fresh in everyone’s mind, while others suggest that doubts raised over GFH may have had an effect.
The biggest contributing factor to the change was the amount of people saying they had no confidence whatsoever. 75% of fans picked this option in September, dropping to only 45% in October. However, the majority of those that changed their vote did so only slightly, giving Ken Bates a 1 (Extremely Low Confidence) or a 2 (Low Confidence) rather than a 0 (No Confidence). In total, 88% chose one of these three options compared to 95% in September.
Confidence in Ken Bates?
- 5 - Total confidence (2%, 34 Votes)
- 4 - Highly confident (2%, 27 Votes)
- 3 - Confident (8%, 134 Votes)
- 2 - Low confidence (22%, 350 Votes)
- 1 - Extremely low confidence (20%, 319 Votes)
- 0 - No confidence (46%, 762 Votes)
Total Voters: 1,625
Finally, with results on the pitch elevating our league position, confidence in Warnock holding pretty steady and confidence in Ken Bates on the rise, it’s no surprise fans are more confident in Leeds United achieving promotion this season.
Compared to a rating of 2.41 in September, Leeds United fans confidence in promotion has risen to 2.72. The results continue to show mixed feelings, but less than 2% said they had no confidence whatsoever, compared with 8% last month.
Once again, opinions centred on the pending takeover. Most fans believe Leeds United need to strengthen the squad if they’re to sustain a promotion challenge and that funds won’t be forthcoming unless the takeover is completed. Most fans were quick to add that they thoroughly believed Neil Warnock was the man to take us back to the Premier League, but he’d have an extremely difficult time doing so without financial support.
Confidence in Leeds United achieving promotion?
- 5 - Total confidence (2%, 39 Votes)
- 4 - Highly confident (9%, 151 Votes)
- 3 - Confident (50%, 794 Votes)
- 2 - Low confidence (35%, 565 Votes)
- 1 - Extremely low confidence (2%, 30 Votes)
- 0 - No confidence (2%, 15 Votes)
Total Voters: 1,592
About the polls
The polls are conducted over a 48 hour period and aim to deliver a sample size of at least 1,000. The highest possible ‘confidence level’ is 5, determined by averaging out the number associated with each level of confidence (ie. 0 – No Confidence, 5 – Total Confidence).
We have no way to estimate the population size of the Leeds United fanbase, so instead, follow the practices of widely respected polling firms such as Rasmussen who use a sample size of 1,000 to represent the population of the United States. In reality, our own sample size will often be higher than 1,000 and the population of the Leeds United fanbase is much lower than the United States of America, thus, we believe, providing a very accurate poll of Leeds United fan confidence.
You can find more information on sample size here.
The polls themselves use IP logging to prevent people voting more than once and effecting the outcome. This is by no means flawless, but the inconvenience it causes to those wishing to tamper with the polls should be enough of a deterrent. Moreover, the volume of votes we receive would make it very difficult for someone to artificially change the result. The polls are also monitored for any unusual changes in voting patterns.
The Scratching Shed takes great care to avoid influencing how people vote. While we accept the views of the site authors can often be in favour of, or against, certain individuals, the authors opinions are not published alongside the polls. The majority of our traffic comes via Google News and NewsNow, we are not a newspaper people read expecting a certain opinion, but an independent Leeds United site most people find randomly while looking for news on the club. As such, we believe our sample is an entirely random representation of the Leeds United fanbase.