Over 3,000 of you voted in our September manager and chairman confidence polls, and the results are now in.

Using a scale of 0 to 5, with 0 being no confidence and 5 being total confidence, fans were asked to select a value that best represented their level of confidence in Neil Warnock, Ken Bates and Leeds United’s chances of securing promotion. We also asked fans to explain their answers and have used those responses to try and summarise the general mood.

We’ll run the same polls at the beginning of each month to see how fans confidence alters throughout the season.

The results break down as follows.

Neil Warnock 

94% selected one of the two highest confidence ratings for Neil Warnock, with 63% saying they had total confidence in the manager and less than 1% choosing a value from 0 (no confidence) to 2 (low confidence).

Overall, Neil Warnock scored an extremely high 4.53, with fans pointing to his experience and past success as the main reason for their votes.

Votes for Neil Warnock 

Confidence in Neil Warnock?

  • 5 - Total confidence (63%, 2,087 Votes)
  • 4 (30%, 997 Votes)
  • 3 (5%, 163 Votes)
  • 2 (1%, 35 Votes)
  • 1 (0%, 11 Votes)
  • 0 - No confidence (0%, 16 Votes)

Total Voters: 3,292

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Ken Bates

90% of fans said they had no confidence whatsoever (75%), or extremely low confidence (15%) in Ken Bates. Only 2% gave Ken Bates a confidence rating of 4 (highly confident) or 5 (total confidence).

In explaining their votes, some fans said they were frustrated by the continued silence that has been synonymous with a summer of takeover speculation. Broken promises, secrecy, lies and a perceived lack of ambition summarises the majority of comments fans left.

Overall, Ken Bates scored an incredibly low 0.44.

Votes for Ken Bates

Confidence in Ken Bates?

  • 5 - Total confidence (1%, 42 Votes)
  • 4 (1%, 26 Votes)
  • 3 (3%, 106 Votes)
  • 2 (5%, 157 Votes)
  • 1 (15%, 466 Votes)
  • 0 - No confidence (75%, 2,384 Votes)

Total Voters: 3,174

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Promotion Chances

Despite a promising start to the season, confidence in Leeds United achieving promotion is split with an overall rating of 2.41.

The general consensus said they had total faith in Warnock’s ability to achieve promotion, but felt he faced a difficult task with a squad that lacks depth and little money made available to him.

Votes for promotion chances

Confidence in Leeds United achieving promotion?

  • 5 - Total confidence (2%, 70 Votes)
  • 4 (11%, 359 Votes)
  • 3 (38%, 1,209 Votes)
  • 2 (28%, 889 Votes)
  • 1 (13%, 423 Votes)
  • 0 - No confidence (7%, 210 Votes)

Total Voters: 3,158

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  • Richard Carter

    And in other news a bear is found shitting on the woods… And the pope is catholic

    • TSS

      It’s how they alter throughout the season that’ll be interesting. How results and events effect the confidence in Warnock. Will Bates’ rise if the takeover falls through and fans realise we’re stuck with him? Or will it drop further?

      • TimPM

        It’s good to see opinions without all the text that goes with comments, too. You could argue less pro-Bates want to comment because they’re very needy and would be crushed if they received negative feedback from fellow commentors.

        But with those results it seems in fact that this is not the case. The results suggest – though only taking in a few thousand – that those who disagree with Bates in many departments are far from the small minority he frequently claims.

        • TSS

          3,000 is a huge sample size. National surveys are often conducted on much smaller scales, and Family Fortunes only uses 100!

          I was checking the result throughout and it remained incredibly consistent from 500 votes to 3000. Sample size makes little difference beyond a certain point.

          • TimPM

            Good point, I got stuck in Bates’ probable response which is that unless it’s 20000 it only shows what the moron minority thinks lol
            ——————

          • TSS

            Mr Bates is welcome to take me up on my bet. Obviously, I’ll require a totally independent party to conduct the survey. Not because I don’t trust him… no, wait, that’s exactly the reason.

          • Chareose

            Yes it’s a good point there are atleast ten more Leeds fans that would score bates highly that won’t have come on this site because it’s ‘anti bates’ ….

          • Lee B

            Although I have no doubt the results are a fair reflection of general sentiment (and definitely a reflection of mine), there is a fatal flaw in the poll.
            TSS is, by-and-large, an anti-Bates website, frequented by like-minded people. I’m sure that it wasn’t designed to be that way by the creators, but nonetheless that’s the way that it is (by the way, I have yet to find a pro-Bates website out there – the closest is the YEP, but they’re slowly converting to ‘our side’).
            It’s noticeable that anyone on the site that makes pro-Bates comments gets shot down quite firmly by other visitors (although usually with more class than many other websites – yes ClarkeOneNil, I’m looking at you!), so pro-Bates people would be less likely to visit TSS.

            In this sense the poll was biased and Bates-apologists can easily point to this and say that the poll was ‘rigged’ or ‘flawed’.

            Sorry, but you might need to know this, just in case you have to defend the results.

          • TSS

            I disagree. As you pointed out yourself, pro-Bates fans do visit this website (how else could they be shot down by others?)

            The majority of visitors come from Google News and NewsNow and are attracted by headline, not the name of the site.

            Also, if every single site is anti-Bates, could it not be that they’re simply dealing with the facts and that just so happens to reflect badly on Bates? We try to be as balanced as possible, but when the evidence leans one way you can’t invent or exaggerate good points to artificially create balance.

            I agree it’s an easy argument to make, but I’m certain the results of this poll wouldn’t change no matter where it was taken. As I said, I’d bet my house you could stand at the entrances to the stadium and ask the same question and the difference wouldn’t be more than 5%.

  • Chareose

    It was worth doing if only to highlight to Bates and the Media just how much we want him to move on…… I suggest we find more ways to portray this or perhaps run this poll every week….. I wonder how much an ad campaign on the TV and busses having a pop at Bates would cost…..

    • Chareose

      Portsmouth fans I know are saying its an investment Bank……20 million put on the table straight away. So I wouldnt be surprised if our buyers have got fed up and moved on.

      • RC

        Not what papers in the Middle East are saying… Wish our fans would stop panicking at every bit of news lol

  • Xibyr

    I think that is a very fair overview of the current situation. A good manager with little to no backing, and an outside chance for promotion.

  • It would appear that a Middle East Consortium have submitted a bid for Portsmouth, according to the BBC, co-incidence or is that the TO dead and buried

    • Chareose

      Chareose • 6 minutes ago • parent −+Flag as inappropriatePortsmouth fans I know are saying its an investment Bank……20 million put on the table straight away. So I wouldnt be surprised if our buyers have got fed up and moved on.

      • Tyler75

        The UAEsports paper 360 is saying that the bids are totall unconnected

  • TimPM

    It’s interesting in view of these polls that LUST have come up with some figures suggesting Bates has brought in a lot of income through various avenues this year so far. They didn’t get back to me when I tweeted them asking how they came up with the figures, but they promise some more info including the opinion of one of Bates’ preferred financial whizzes, which would suggest the figures are at least somewhat credible.

    If they are correct, has he put us either in so much debt all this income was required to keep us running (which would be a blow to his claims of financial stability under his leadership), or has he decided for no apparent reason not to invest funds we do possess in a manager the fans seem fully behind at a time when the squad seems commonly accepted (not least by Warnock and Jones) as a long way from good enough for a serious promotion challenge?

    • I honestly think if there isn’t a take over or some sort of investment we will be back in Administration by Christmas

      • RC

        On what possible evidence have you drawn that conclusion..?

        • Mike N.

          Revenues from season tickets tied up for next two years to pay for east stand redevelopment. Repayment of debenture loan due at Xmas (IIRC £4.5 million in £5 million due after 6 months. Falling attendances. Warnock’s statements about having no money for transfers/loans) for example.

          • Mike N.

            Oh, also see TimPM’s comment above, £3-5 million in legal fees that the club will probably have to pay.

    • Irving08

      As I recall the Swiss Ramble pointed to unusually high commercial income for the 2010-11 season too. I suspect he his holding money back. What for ? – again this points to the need for more openness. Speculation is tiresome – and bloody annoying.

      • TimPM

        True, and at the risk of speculating too much agaun, we shouldn’t forget the apparent 3-5m legal fees for the Levi case which might well be picked up solely by LUFC. ——————

  • preddo

    What I can’t belive is that 42 people actually gave Bates total confidence, poor deluded people. Just how bad does he have to be before people realise what he is, well at least the vast majority understand, Bates out NOW.

    • RC

      I know haha but also the 16 people that gave Warnock no confidence! where do these people come from?

      • Heisenberg

        clarkeonenil.co.uk lol

        • Is this something to do with your uncertainty principle?

      • RC

        I genuinely cant believe i have had 2 dislikes for making a comment about how ridiculous people are for giving Warnock no confidence go back to your caves you’ve been living in for the duration of his last 7 promotions.

      • Chris Stubbs

        Huddersfield!! lol

      • Matthew

        Warnock does seem to divide opinion on teams he has managed, QPR fans, well most seem to like him, though their opinion of him dropped significantly when he signed Diouf(Mostly because of what Diouf did in that game when that dude broke his leg and he was stood over him being abusive)..
        Warnock seems to come out in public saying he isn’t liked, truth is, he is liked, respected and admired by a ton of fans from a ton of teams, but doesn’t do himself any favours when he signs people like Diouf. Nothing against Diouf but many fans noted what he said about him and cant understand why he would do that.

    • Leeds_Lad

      42 people confident in masterBates, …. all I can think is that he must have a big family !

  • tim campbell

    Lets face it bates is stuck with 2 choices – 1. Hand over ownership of the club having signed the indemnity clause and face the ongoing consequences of that OR 2. Cling on with his scrawny fingers in the hope that he can sell more players and the more discerning fans will all have brain transplants and return to elland road in their droves. O sorry there was a third alternative – he cud pop his clogs!

  • mrbigwheels

    Well… that’s sorted then. We obviously need a new Chairman!. Well done TSS.

    • TSS

      Be nice if Bates was a real Chairman of a board who had elected him to that position. He’d never survive when public opinion was so low, they’d know it was effecting income.

      • mrbigwheels

        That is so true, but don’t forget we are the clubs real shareholders and if by Christmas time Bates is still here and results are not in the upper third of the table due to no player investment, lack of depth, injuries etc then I think Bates will be even further on the back foot with supporter opinion, support inside ER and a much bigger coverage by the national press of his untenable position as Chairman and owner of LUFC. What I’m suggesting is, we are possibly going to have to accept the next eight months as the timescale for revenues to decline and force Bates to ….get out of this club. Warnock has basically stated this four/five weeks ago with reference to any takeover activity happening. He sees Bates as his boss for some time yet rather than the opposite of that.

  • Leeds_Lad

    In any circumstance other than football, votes as “damming” as those for masterBates would result in any “elected” or “employed” person resigning or being instantly sacked ! …. Unfortunately “we” the fans are continuing to support him financially, and this is all he cares about. ….. The time has arrived where supporters must actively show their proven depth of feeling, cut off all revenue streams, and force this “parasite” out of our club !

  • Steve A

    What this poll means is that 1% of the people who voted didnt understand the question

  • Sunnyleeds

    I have to congratulate The Scratching Shed for this initiative, and better still to carry the poll in the coming months. It is a great idea. I am sure that it will show how Bates confidence will decrease with each individual poll. However I would like to see greater Leeds support participation. 3,000 is a massive number but translates to around 5 percent of what I consider Leeds probable support that could go to watch football matches. It is definitely a good indicator, but the higher the number the closer the result would be to reality.

    • Kalich

      To be fair Sunny , 3000 people is a pretty good sample and draws a very good picture of whats going on at ER from a fans POV

      • TimPM

        It’d be great to get a bigger sample, but to put it into perspective for the US election (a country of over 300000000) Gallup’s latest sample was 3050, Rasmussen’s latest sample was 1500, and CNN’s only 750…
        So we’re obviously going to get criticism, but that wouldn’t necessarily be fair. Though I agree the minority who seem to be pro-Bates might be less likely to visit the site.
        ——————

        • Sunnyleeds

          TimPM I agree with what you have said. But the fat that such gallop polls may have a much bigger spread would tend to make this poll someone a little away from the true picture. Nonetheless 3,000 is a massive, massive number and could hardly go much different from the outcome we have here. But a bigger spread would tend to diffuse any thoughts that this poll outcome is coming only from critical or vocal Leeds fans. All I wish that we have is a true picture of what Leeds fans think and this is definitely close.

          • TimPM

            Me too. We should get Bates to agree to hire an independent group to poll people each match… Irving helped with Russian election overseeing I seem to recall?
            Though I suspect Bates wouldn’t agree to it as he’s not likely to come out looking good…
            ——————

          • TSS

            Most of our hits come from NewsNow and Google News, so it’s not really a niche site (people are attracted by headline, rather than brand I’d say).

            You can use a confidence interval* to determine level of accuracy. Based on a fan base of 500,000 (which is being incredibly generous IMO) the confidence interval for this poll would be 1.54% (I’ve made the results confident 3-5 and not confident 0-2 for that calculation). That basically means if you conducted this poll with every single Leeds fan in the entire world, the results wouldn’t change by more than 0.08 – hence my earlier proposed bet for Ken Bates.

            *Confidence interval is margin of error market researchers use for determining accuracy of a poll. It determines the sample size you need to get the views of a population (Gallop’s poll for example will have a larger interval than this as it’s a smaller sample size and larger population, as will 99.9% of polls you see in newspapers and academic research). http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

            This is a good explanation as to why it’s pointless surveying the entire country, and why companies like Gallop only survey 1,000 – http://www.surveygizmo.com/survey-software-support/tutorials/sample-size/

          • mrbigwheels

            Haha…. 500,000 fan base…. Ker-ching!. Bates sends memo to Shaun….. ” I have the answer to our problems Shaun…. We need to change the fans that presently come to Elland Road, get a new lot in that I can cajole and rob, didn’t know we’d got so many”.

          • mrbigwheels

            ” cancel the exit poll we were going to do Shaun, the lovely SS people are doing all the work for me… at a very reasonable price… raise an invoice Shaun”.

          • Sunnyleeds

            @TSS. I never expected such depth behind your initiative. Our gratitude to the good work you are doing is even greater. And it also confirms my earlier conclusions that this poll is very near to the general thought of the Leeds support.

    • TSS

      That’s key to the concept – to see how confidence alters over time. I can’t see Warnock maintaining such a high level once we have a bad patch, Bates’ could go either way (if takeover falls through, he’ll put his own spin on it and that’ll no doubt win him some support). Promotion is the one I expect to see most variance in though.

      • Sunnyleeds

        I, for one, tend to continue to support a manager who is doing his very best in using his experience for our great club. And if the situation turns for the bad, sobeit because he cannot perform miracles against clubs that are directly competing with us and which have a greater ambition. Just look at Blackburn who spend between 8 to 10 million for a single player against our current ambition of spending less than 1.5 million. So we should continue to back whoever is doing the right thing for the club, notwithstanding the outcome.

        • Matthew

          Speanding money doesn’t always achieve promotion, to get promotion you need to build a solid side, which takes time. Especially as we pretty much dismantle our team every season. For arguements sake.
          If you kept our current defense, and had Snoddy, Howson, Austin Johnson, Gradel + Becchio/Ross, that side alone would achieve promotion and it wouldn’t of cost us much at all. Under Bates we pretty much dismantled the workings of a side that, with a better defense could easily go up.

          • RC

            Johnson was rubbish for us tbh shots from miles out that one in about 50 would go on target and maybe go in then he looks like a star but as a season ticket holder the amount of times i saw him blaze it over and waste possession for us was unbelievable. He also wasnt a very passer of the ball.

  • Matthew

    Those 42 people voting for Ken Bates either don’t support Leeds, or are random fans from other teams. We do get random people coming here who support Millwall and random other teams. We’re Leeds so people naturally want to lurk our forums, and our websites to get random news on us, although they claim not to care.

  • If this poll had been taken last year, Grayson would have got the same rating as Warnock now. Ken Bates would have got the same rating.

    The only difference is that the rating on promotion would have been higher.

    What does it all really mean? It means we’re not getting promoted. Same old story. New Manager, same old Chairman.

    We’re an also-ran. What’s the point? We all know what we are. We’re a selling club. Sell the good players and replace them with weaker & cheaper players. We’ve seen it all before with Gradel, Delph, Howson, Snodgrass, Beckford etc.

    Becchio, McCormack, Lees, Aidy White, Byram, get ready…with this regime in charge you WON’T be playing in a Leeds shirt in 2 years time. You will be sold. And Leeds will still be in the Championship. I’m starting to get sick of this now.

  • mattbb2

    if there is a feeling ken bates is not running the club properly then there is perhaps a case for a lawsuit under the tort of negligence from anyone who has purchased a season ticket. Who’ll start the ball rolling? The damages relate to what he has effectively `taken out’ of the club since he started running it, in the context of the season ticket alone it is the false position he has placed us in. Are there any lawyers reading – perhaps we can discuss?

    • mrbigwheels

      Perhaps TSS it is the season ticket holder, the one with no further options for this season, that should be asked… ”are you happy with what you’ve got now you’ve paid your money?”. Surely that is the ultimate poll. There would be no way Bates could be dismissive of that outcome… now would there?.

      • TSS

        There’s no way to ensure only ST holders answer unless you did it in person at the ground and asked to see their card first.

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  • Smudger78
    • Mike N.

      Warnock’s working without a contract, this gives him the option to walk at any time without any penalty. Also, EHD is only under contract until Jan 2013, has Neil tipped him the wink that lack of backing would see him on his bike at Xmas? (OK, I’m paranoid, but that doesn’t mean they are not out to get me).

      • TSS

        Warnock’s contracted until end of season.

        • Mike N.

          I understood that he hadn’t signed the contract, however, I will bow to your superior knowledge :-)

          • TimPM

            Did we actually ever get confirmation that he had signed a new contract? ——————

  • Irving08

    Now run a poll on ‘what measures would increase your confidence in Ken Bates’, with options ranging from the ‘structural’, eg, resignation, to ‘particular policies’, eg, reduction of ticket prices.

    • Irving08

      Err forgive the paradox. Make ‘structural’ – inviting a LUST representative on to the Board. Anyway you get the idea, I hope.

  • Irving08

    David, Sorry to repeat myself, but could we have a questionnaire asking posters what would increase their confidence in Bates, allowing ‘nothing’ as one of the responses, of course.
    This might elicit some constructive suggestions that we could put to KB in the mooted atttempt at dialogue – or have we moved off that subject ?

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